By David McDonald, CEO at SolarAfrica
In the event you ever end up sitting round a C-suite business dinner desk, you’ll quickly discover that for the reason that recent-ish abolition of loadshedding (lengthy might it final!), the vitality dialog is mostly crammed with optimism, dominated by massive concepts and peppered with daring timelines.
However when you’re on the bottom, you already know that the market strikes in its personal time, and in a much more sensible means. The realities shaping 2026 aren’t predictions or coverage aspirations, however they’re already taking part in out in how tasks are financed, how municipalities procure energy, and the way companies take into consideration vitality threat.
Listed below are 5 vitality market truths that can inform how we, as an business, function in 2026.
The wholesale market nonetheless hinges on Eskom – and that hasn’t modified
Over the previous yr, there was an excessive amount of discuss across the South African Wholesale Electrical energy Market (SAWEM), coupled with phrases corresponding to “prepared”, “milestones” and “imminent”.
However whereas it would sound, on paper, like we’re about to press play, the fact is that with out all stakeholders’ participation, a wholesale market gained’t operate. Presently, whereas Eskom helps the idea of an open market, it nonetheless seems to be hedging its bets by constructing and controlling its personal digital wheeling platform. And personal off-takers and Unbiased Energy Producers (IPPs) will proceed to align themselves – at the least within the brief time period – with the state-owned entity as a result of it’s the place bankability exists.
That is vital as a result of key stakeholders corresponding to builders, prospects and banks are watching and responding to what exists in the present day. Initiatives are being financed and constructed utilizing Eskom-approved constructions, and no person is holding tasks again ready for a market which will or might not arrive on schedule.
I imagine {that a} wholesale market is in the most effective pursuits of South Africa’s vitality panorama, and that it’ll nonetheless play a task in future. However in 2026, most personal energy exercise continues to sit down outdoors that debate – for now, at the least.
Municipalities shopping for energy straight turns into the trail of least resistance
Whereas 2025 has proved that wheeling is viable at scale and gives a mess of benefits, many municipalities are selecting a extra easy route: shopping for energy straight from IPPs.
Within the Western Cape, Swartland and George are two current examples of municipalities which have said their intention to supply electrical energy straight from energy producers, whereas in KwaZulu-Natal, eThekwini Municipality was the primary SA metro to safe ministerial approval to purchase vital capability from IPPs.
For them, wheeling brings administrative and monetary complexity, whereas direct procurement – then again – is simpler to implement and more and more simpler to finance. Furthermore, adjustments to Eskom’s Electrical energy Provide Settlement have made these constructions extra rigorous and, in some instances, tougher for municipalities to navigate.
Consequently, count on the market to turn into much more fragmented in 2026.
Power choices transfer out of operations and into the steadiness sheet
In 2026, vitality is not handled as solely an operational value; for a lot of giant customers, it now strikes onto the steadiness sheet and into the danger administration operate.
Electrical energy is among the few main prices companies can really repair over an extended interval, which is why vitality conversations are more and more occurring with finance and threat groups (not simply the sustainability and engineering individuals).
We see this clearly in industries corresponding to mining. Electrical energy is seen as certainly one of mining’s largest enter prices, and in some instances, uncertainty round future pricing is delaying capital funding. Whereas issues like commodity pricing and market volatility can’t be managed, a mine does have management over their vitality technique, which is the place companions who can construction blended vitality options have an more and more important position to play in 2026.
Mounted and capability prices begin to change the panorama
As self-generation will increase, municipalities and Eskom are more and more reliant on fastened and capability prices to guard income, which adjustments the panorama considerably. In future, it’s possible that capability prices will improve at a far quicker charge than consumption prices.
What does this imply for 2026? Count on main gamers within the vitality business, corresponding to SolarAfrica, to innovate and get smarter about managing peak demand and capability publicity in a bid to cut back prices for our prospects. Suppose batteries, hybrid provide fashions, diversified vitality stacks and the power to produce energy outdoors normal photo voltaic hours to turn into extra prevalent.
Wheeling works – however financing remains to be catching up
In 2025, we proved that wheeling works – and within the case of SolarAfrica’s SunCentral, first energy is predicted to come back on-line later this yr. Nevertheless, in 2026 we’re seeing extra merchants enter the vitality buying and selling pool, extra off-takers and extra advanced constructions. These are placing stress on banks which might be nonetheless geared for less complicated, single-buyer offers. Reaching monetary shut on these tasks is already taking longer than builders would really like, and this pattern is ready to proceed.
However this gained’t be the case perpetually: as extra multi-tenant tasks come on-line, banks may have entry to raised knowledge, that means that threat will turn into simpler to cost.
For now, you’ll be able to count on the size and rigidity of the monetary shut course of to offer many builders a couple of gray hairs.
ABOUT SOLARAFRICA:
Based in 2011, SolarAfrica supplies a set of capex-free inexperienced vitality options to the industrial and industrial sectors in Southern Africa. The holistic suite contains on-site options corresponding to photo voltaic vitality and battery storage along with digital options like wheeling, buying and selling and aggregation.
SolarAfrica companions with companies in South Africa searching for an vitality answer that gives energy safety, value financial savings and carbon discount – constructing in direction of long-term sustainability.
The corporate has developed into an formidable workforce who’re captivated with what they do and the core values they uphold. SolarAfrica has been named the continent’s main photo voltaic vitality agency twice, scooping the Africa Photo voltaic Business Affiliation’s African Photo voltaic Firm of the Yr award in 2021 and 2023.
