Africa’s attire and textile producers – already reeling from US tariffs – will probably be hardest hit by the tip of the US’s tariff-free African Progress and Alternative Act, in response to analysis by the Worldwide Commerce Heart (ITC).
AGOA, which has supplied dozens of African nations with tariff-free entry to the US market because it was signed into US legislation in 2000, was allowed to lapse on September 30 by the Trump administration, bringing an finish to preferences for 32 nations, of whom 22 certified for attire provisions.
Throughout all sectors, tariff measures launched in 2025 are estimated to cut back projected exports of AGOA beneficiaries by about 8% by 2029. The expiry of AGOA provides an additional decline of 0.6 share factors, or $189m.
$138m of that will probably be accounted for by reductions in exports of attire and textile merchandise to america, that are anticipated to register a decline of 9.7% by 2029 because of the tip of AGOA, by far the best influence on any sector. Skins, leather-based, merchandise thereof and footwear (-3.3%), processed meals and animal feed (-1.6%) and autos (-1.3%) are the subsequent most affected.
The ITC says the expiry of AGOA will improve duties in value-added and labour-intensive sectors that had benefited most from preferential entry. The steepest hikes are noticed in attire & textile merchandise (+14 share factors), skins, leather-based, merchandise thereof and footwear (+4.3) and processed meals & animal feed (+2.4), the place competitiveness has relied closely on duty-free entry below AGOA.
In current months, the administration has hit African and non-African nations with tariffs, additional exacerbating the influence of the tip of AGOA. For the attire business, the 14 share level improve from the tip of AGOA mixed with the 13 share level improve from 2025 tariffs results in a complete tariff improve of 27 share factors.
Actual world influence
AGOA contained particular provisions for textiles and attire, together with the “third-country material allowance.” This rule, obtainable solely to “least developed” nations accepted for attire eligibility, allowed them to supply material globally whereas nonetheless exporting completed attire duty-free to america. It was instrumental in enabling nations similar to Lesotho, Kenya and Madagascar to ascertain aggressive attire industries. Extra superior economies similar to South Africa and Mauritius, whereas granted attire eligibility, didn’t profit from the third-country material allowance and have been topic to stricter guidelines of origin requiring material sourced from america or different AGOA beneficiaries.
Pamela Coke-Hamilton, govt director of the ITC, stated the tip of AGOA and the introduction of US tariffs may have a devastating influence on attire exporters.
“If AGOA have been to lapse, it is going to deal a blow to African nations already feeling the burden of recent commerce measures, from the most recent tariffs to sustainability necessities. Entry to key markets is changing into tougher, and African nations – particularly the least developed – are feeling the pressure.
“Take Lesotho. Practically 60% of its attire exports go to the US, value over $230m yearly. Underneath AGOA, these items entered the US market duty-free. At present, they face a 15% tariff. Which will sound small, in contrast with the preliminary 50%, however this transfer has led to cancelled orders, misplaced jobs and decreased competitiveness vis-à-vis neighbours like Kenya and Eswatini, which face a ten% fee. Lesotho’s textile business employs 40,000 individuals. That is affecting actual individuals, actual lives.”
Mining largely unaffected
In the meantime, UN Commerce and Growth says that “the current expiry of the scheme would threaten export diversification and industrialisation throughout the continent.“
“The expiry of AGOA would disproportionately have an effect on Africa’s light-manufacturing exports to the US, particularly attire and agro-food merchandise, similar to fish and dried fruits…On account of various tariff charges and exceptions for delicate uncooked supplies, African exports of agricultural items and manufactured merchandise can be topic to tariffs which are two-to-three occasions larger than these utilized on fuels and minerals.”
Against this, UNESCO says exporters of mined commodities are the least affected by the US tariff adjustments on African items.
“Nations just like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria or Angola – whose exports are primarily fuels and minerals – face minimal tariff will increase, as their most important exports already profit from low MFN (most-favoured nation) tariffs, or exemptions from further duties. Extra diversified economies, similar to South Africa, are much less uncovered to AGOA’s expiry however have already skilled vital tariff will increase this yr as a result of country-specific and sectoral tariffs.”
