A tectonic shift is coming to the worldwide smartphone market. In accordance with the newest information from Counterpoint Analysis, Apple is about to surpass Samsung in annual smartphone shipments in 2025 for the primary time since 2011, reclaiming the highest spot after a 14-year run by the South Korean large.
The analysis agency’s Smartphone Market Outlook Tracker paints a bullish image for Cupertino, forecasting a worldwide cargo share of 19.4% for Apple in 2025, narrowly beating out Samsung, which is anticipated to land at 18.7%. Even with Samsung anticipating a good 4.6% YoY cargo development, it won’t be sufficient to carry off the momentum of the iPhone.
iPhone 17 and the alternative cycle drive Apple’s surge
Apple’s projected 10% YoY development in 2025 is basically fueled by the sturdy world reception for the brand new iPhone 17 sequence.
“Past the constructive reception for the iPhone 17, a significant driver is the alternative cycle hitting its inflection level,” famous Counterpoint senior analyst Yang Wang. “Many customers who bought smartphones through the COVID-19 growth at the moment are upgrading, supported by the rising second-hand iPhone market.”
Key drivers behind this large forecast improve embrace:
The iPhone 17 sequence momentum: Gross sales of the iPhone 17 lineup within the US had been reportedly 12% increased than its predecessor, with China seeing a fair larger 18% bump within the first 4 weeks post-launch. The profitable launch noticed the brand new iPhone Air mannequin changing the earlier Plus mannequin, hitting a candy spot with customers.The improve inflection level: Senior analyst Yang Wang famous {that a} important wave of customers who purchased telephones through the COVID-19 growth at the moment are due for an improve. This, mixed with the 358 million second-hand iPhones offered between 2023 and Q2 2025, varieties a “sizable demand base” anticipated to maintain iPhone development for years.Macroeconomic tailwinds: Apple additionally benefited from a truce within the US-China tech battle and lower-than-expected tariffs, serving to streamline its provide chain efforts and boosting demand in key rising markets.
The report suggests Apple will keep this new management place via 2029, backed by future {hardware} just like the iPhone 17e in H1 2026 and its first foldable iPhone anticipated by the tip of 2026.
Samsung’s technique leans on the A-series
Whereas Samsung is anticipated to see a strong 5% cargo development in 2025, the mid-to-low finish of the market is the place the corporate faces its largest menace and the place the African context turns into most related.
Samsung’s technique to defend its turf depends closely on a “strategic pivot for the A sequence,” that includes stronger specs and aggressive pricing. That is explicitly aimed toward reinforcing its momentum in rising markets, together with India, Southeast Asia (SEA), and crucially for us, the Center East and Africa (MEA) area.
Whereas the worldwide narrative focuses on Apple’s premium dominance, the native story throughout the African continent is much less concerning the flagship battle and extra concerning the fierce battle for the finances and mid-range segments. Within the African market, Chinese language OEMs are usually not simply competing with Samsung; they need to dominate it.
Counterpoint notes that main Chinese language gamers, together with Transsion (the group behind Tecno, Infinix, and itel, which command large quantity in markets like Kenya and Nigeria), Xiaomi, Vivo, and OPPO, are more and more counting on abroad markets like MEA and LATAM for his or her future development.
For years, Samsung’s A-series has been the gatekeeper of the mid-range expertise, providing a recognizable world model to aspirational customers. Nonetheless, the report highlights a shift the place Chinese language OEMs are pivoting to worth. They’re now shifting away from solely volume-driven methods and are investing closely in premium units, AI capabilities, and even foldables, straight difficult Samsung within the increased worth tiers. Their technique is to construct on their large low-end put in base by providing incremental upgrades into the mid-range.
The Korean large’s protection rests on making the A-series extra aggressive by way of specs and pricing. The battle for the African shopper, who calls for most worth for his or her cash, is a direct consequence of this world stress. If Samsung fails to supply compelling sufficient units within the KES 15,000–40,000 vary, customers are quickly shifting to feature-rich and sometimes cheaper options from its Chinese language rivals.
Curiously, the report presents a possible short-term respite for Samsung. Provide chain jitters, particularly a rising scarcity of LPDDR4 reminiscence and skyrocketing element costs, are posing challenges for Chinese language OEMs, “particularly hurting the low-end smartphone phase.” This might throttle Chinese language development in 2026, which Counterpoint forecasts at only one.7% YoY for the highest 4.
Whereas Apple and Samsung are battling for world supremacy, the hyper-competitive stress from Chinese language OEMs in areas like ours is forcing all gamers to supply extra for much less. The final word winner on this regional skirmish would be the one who can finest steadiness aggressive pricing with strong options, a struggle that continues to be huge open within the dynamic MEA market.
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