Chiefs vs. Giants Sunday Night Football Week 3 Betting Predictions

The Kansas City Chiefs will travel for a matchup against the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football. Both teams enter the game with 0-2 records, trying to save their seasons. It’s already difficult to make the playoffs without a win through two weeks, but a third loss would be an early kiss of death.

We’re taking the over here, but I want to be clear that I’m not backing either offense. I’m attacking the defenses — specifically their pass rushes. That’s the key to the over in this game.

Kansas City leads the NFL in blitz rate (43.9%) through two games. They also rank eighth-last in pressure rate (15.2%) this season. Granted, they’ve had two difficult matchups to start the 2025 season, but it’s a recipe for disaster if this is a long-term issue.

Russell Wilson isn’t a good quarterback at this point in his career, but we know he can still throw the deep ball. He’s completing nearly 70% of his passes while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt when kept clean this season. He also flashed plenty of ability in 2024 when he wasn’t pressured, and this likely isn’t a fluke.

On the other side, New York ranks 10th in the NFL in blitz rate (30.5%) in 2025. Similar to the Chiefs, it hasn’t mattered, as the Giants also rank fifth-last in pressure rate (13.7%) through two games.

Patrick Mahomes is the type of player who can perform well against any defense. He doesn’t need a clean pocket to find success, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t help. Unsurprisingly, Mahomes is elite when given time in the pocket, and I don’t expect that to change this week.

The other aspect is that this time allows for deep shots to develop. Kansas City performed well in terms of limiting big plays against the Philadelphia Eagles, but they gave up several big plays to the Los Angeles Chargers. We know New York can score in a hurry, and we saw that upside against the Dallas Cowboys last week.

Similar to the Chiefs, the Giants are a defense that will allow chunk plays. They’ve struggled defensively in both games, and it isn’t likely to get better against Kansas City this week.

We’re in a spot where the Chiefs need to get back on track, and this is one of the best matchups their offense could ask for. They likely aren’t as elite as a few years ago, but they can find success here. The Giants also boast enough upside to flash at times against this defense, making the total a bit too low.

Where to Bet: Kansas City Chiefs/New York Giants over 44.5 total points | -105 at ESPN Bet

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 4-5