Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis on Trump, Erdogan, and NATO, with Overseas Coverage’s Ravi Agrawal

As Europe wakes as much as the fact of a nakedly transactional United States, its leaders are extra brazenly declaring the necessity for elevated protection spending and a broader shift towards what is called strategic autonomy—a wonkish time period for a rustic or area to have the ability to set its personal priorities. One nation that has lengthy been speaking up such a path is Greece, a NATO member that spends greater than 3 p.c of its GDP on protection partially due to its perceived menace from neighboring Turkey. Greece can also be liable for round 1 / 4 of world transport, making it particularly reliant on worldwide commerce.

On the newest episode of FP Reside, I spoke with Kyriakos Mitsotakis, a center-right and liberal politician who has served as Greece’s prime minister since 2019. We mentioned the trans-Atlantic relationship, how Greece navigates the Trump administration, the nation’s challenges with immigration, safety, and far else. Subscribers can watch the complete interview on the video field atop this web page or obtain the free FP Reside podcast. What follows here’s a condensed and frivolously edited transcript.

Ravi Agrawal: I’ve to start out with the trans-Atlantic relationship. U.S. President Donald Trump appears to have pulled again from his latest calls for to purchase Greenland. How a lot has that incident—that drama that all of us noticed in Davos final month—harm the connection between Europe and america?

Kyriakos Mitsotakis: To begin with, let me level out, as we mentioned a few years in the past, that President Trump was proper when he identified that Europe was not contributing its fair proportion when it got here to protection spending, and that we had basically outsourced the safety of our continent to america. Greece was an exception to the rule. We’ve been spending greater than 2 p.c of our GDP [on defense] for a few years, as a consequence of our peculiar geographic and geopolitical challenges. We’re now above 3 p.c. However a lot of the continent solely woke as much as the conclusion that we have to take our strategic autonomy extra severely since President Trump was reelected to the White Home.

So I feel that in that sense, this “impolite awakening” was obligatory to ensure that us to take our personal safety severely. And now we have made important progress with the commitments to spend considerably extra inside NATO but in addition a normal understanding that no matter what occurs in NATO, Europe as an entire must develop its personal protection structure. I’ve been calling for extra European protection spending for fairly a while. And I’m fairly comfortable that almost all European leaders have realized, perhaps barely later than I’d have wished them to, that that is now changing into an indispensable necessity for Europe.

RA: I agree on the protection problem, and we’ll come again to it. However that is about greater than that. On a difficulty like Greenland, Stephen Miller, the president’s deputy chief of employees, has referred to as worldwide regulation “worldwide niceties.” America has additionally overstepped on the subject of worldwide regulation on Venezuela, for instance. How does that resonate in a spot like Greece?

KM: Greece has been a agency believer in worldwide regulation ever for the reason that post-World Battle [II] worldwide safety and protection association was put into place. We’re a nonpermanent member of the [United Nations] Safety Council. And on the subject of our regional geopolitical disputes, we at all times put ahead the elemental premise that they’ll solely be resolved by reference to worldwide regulation, and specifically, the regulation of the seas. However on the similar time, we’re not naive. We do perceive that in these turbulent instances, you will need to construct our personal protection and safety capabilities. So with out altering our basic premise, we do acknowledge that worldwide relations have turn out to be, in a way, extra transactional and that we have to construct our personal energy. Talking for my nation: our personal financial energy, our personal protection energy, our personal soft-power energy by way of utterly rebranding a rustic that was hit very, very harshly from the monetary disaster. So, we’ll proceed to take care of that the rules-based worldwide order is in our broader curiosity whereas not being naive a couple of altering world, which, frankly, as a medium-sized European nation, we can’t actually affect.

RA: Properly, let’s discuss strategic autonomy then. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech in Davos appeared to resonate globally along with his broader level that there’s a rupture on the planet order and that we’re coming into a world through which would possibly is correct and the place dimension issues. He cited Thucydides, which I think about was widespread in Greece. And naturally, Canada is a much bigger financial system than, for instance, Greece is. What’s your sense of a world that strikes in a course that favors dimension over guidelines? How does a rustic like Greece take into consideration that state of affairs?

KM: Properly, to start with, let me level out that I haven’t given up on the trans-Atlantic relationship. And I do imagine that the bonds that join us and which have basically established the post-World Battle II order could also be weaker, however they’re nonetheless there. And particularly while you have a look at NATO and the way instrumental the U.S. nonetheless is by way of offering important capabilities to Europe, one could be naive to argue proper now that Europe can rapidly defend itself with out counting on our U.S. companions.

And I do additionally must level out that Greece has a privileged strategic partnership with america. Now we have a really sturdy safety and protection association. We could discuss somewhat bit about power as a result of I feel it’s taking part in a important position within the new geopolitical and geoeconomic panorama.

I converse as a proud Greek, a proud European, but in addition as somebody who will proceed to work to fix the rifts and the strain within the trans-Atlantic relationship. So, I’m not but able to name the post-World Battle II order useless. And I’ll proceed to interact constructively with the U.S., to additionally clarify to my U.S. pals and our U.S. companions that on the finish of the day, for those who have a look at the worldwide panorama, it’s within the curiosity of america to have a robust financial safety protection relationship with Europe.

There are methods to seek out win-win options while you come to Greenland. I feel Europe made it very, very clear, and I feel it was essential, that there are crimson strains which merely can’t be crossed. However we have to try this, I’d say, in a non-dramatic method, a non-escalatory method, and to additionally persuade america that its official safety issues within the Arctic will be addressed with out crossing these crimson strains. And my sense is that, on the subject of Greenland, we’re transferring in that course.

RA: However while you stated that Europe can’t maintain itself immediately—that it may possibly’t immediately do with out america—that means that 10 years from now, it wish to get there. So what does Europe must do to up its protection spending? And the place does the cash come from, given the continent’s historical past with overshooting its fiscal stability sheets, after which having issues with austerity?

KM: Let me level out that the U.S. can also be not in a really enviable fiscal place, however the U.S. is the U.S. and may afford to fund its personal deficits.

The flip facet of a strong protection is a sturdy financial system. This complete dialogue round European competitiveness, of how will we set up increased progress charges, how can we be extra aggressive, is critical not solely to create extra jobs, to enhance disposable revenue, but in addition to create the fiscal house inside our nationwide stability sheets to fund and enhance spending and protection, which goes to return from public cash, doubtlessly European cash, however it’s additionally going to return from non-public investments. We could have a fully important European Council happen in per week from now. And competitiveness goes to be the only problem that we are going to focus on. Mario Draghi produced a wonderful report a 12 months in the past. Have we carried out it? Not likely. Now we have not likely moved in that course on the pace that I would really like. So, this can be a time to essentially enhance our pace, shift gears.

If I have a look at the instance of Greece, we’re spending greater than 3 p.c of our GDP on protection, however we’re producing surpluses. We’re additionally bringing down our debt on the similar time. And we nonetheless have sufficient fiscal house to additionally minimize taxes. Why can we try this? As a result of now we have a excessive progress fee.

So, what now we have been doing in Greece, we have to replicate on the European stage. If our progress charges are caught at round 1 p.c and if our main economies are rising below 1 p.c, it is going to be tough to finance the investments that we have to create a European protection market. We have to change the competitors guidelines in Europe. We have to permit for extra mergers. We have to nurture the protection ecosystem. Now we have wonderful start-ups. In Greece, this isn’t simply concerning the large platforms: the ships, the airplanes. It’s additionally about innovation. And Europe, and Greece for that matter, has unbelievable expertise through which we wish to make investments. However we is not going to attain our protection targets if we can’t agree on how we’ll fund our protection spending. And enhancing our competitiveness and strengthening our fiscal place is an absolute prerequisite to do this.

RA: Let’s transfer this one step additional. Inform us how nations agree on creating that base of protection spending and funding. Europe, in fact, over the past 80 years has constructed this nice welfare state, however it’s come on the value of counting on america for its protection and counting on Russia for its power. As these issues are taken away, there’s a concept that the cash has to return from someplace. And that is, at its coronary heart, a troublesome dialog that leaders must have with their residents. How do you could have that dialog?

KM: Very a lot so. To begin with, in Greece, this kind of dilemma was not likely that related due to the truth that we had our personal safety issues with Turkey. There was a typically accepted social contract that we would have liked to spend extra on protection. What I’m doing is not only spending extra on protection, but in addition nurturing a Greek protection ecosystem, in order that we don’t simply purchase weapons and techniques from overseas, however we even have important home contribution.

In different European nations, it’s harder. Should you don’t face a direct menace, that dialogue turns into extra difficult. However I’d have a look at what we did after COVID. We created a giant pot of cash. We borrowed, on the European stage, 750 billion euros to deal with the COVID disaster. And I feel it was a really profitable mission. And I do nonetheless imagine that there are European tasks of widespread curiosity—let’s say missile protection—the place we might think about making a devoted European protection facility that will profit all nations. That is the last word European widespread good, in spite of everything. And it might profit all the continent. So why not create a particular instrument that may permit us to borrow on the European stage to fund a majority of these tasks? We’re not there but, however I do sense that there’s extra curiosity in having this dialogue on the European stage, since you’re proper to level out our budgets are stretched. Our residents demand that we preserve our welfare state.

In Greece, I do must level out that we’ve made the tough reforms that different European nations haven’t but made. Our retirement age, for instance, is already at 67 years outdated. So we all know that we are able to fund our social state by our personal budgets. Different European nations are nonetheless struggling to do this. However these kinds of discussions must happen.

And I’d additionally add yet another level, and this pertains to European collective protection preparations. Now we have a clause in our European treaties. It’s Article 42, paragraph 7. That is the equal of [NATO’s] Article 5 within the European Union. It’s a mutual help clause, truly phrased much more strongly than Article 5. We discuss little or no about it in Europe. The time has come to essentially put it on the forefront and to say, “Look, no matter what occurs with NATO, we in Europe have agreed that if a member state below any circumstance is attacked, now we have our personal collective mutual help clause.” So all this isn’t on the expense of NATO, as a result of I feel NATO goes to turn out to be stronger if we take our protection extra severely, and america goes to take us extra severely if we begin upping our sport and spending extra on protection and taking our collective European safety extra severely.

RA: There are in fact fissures inside Europe; it’s not a monolith. There are fissures inside NATO as properly. You talked about Turkey right here. You’re assembly [Turkish] President [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan later this month. Erdogan is a frontrunner who, 4 years in the past, stated he now not even acknowledges your existence. What are you hoping to get out of this assembly?

KM: I’ll be visiting Ankara subsequent Wednesday, main a high-level Greek delegation, so now we have a G2G format which now we have created. In fact, we’ve had our variations with Turkey. One main distinction that we acknowledge in Greece is the delimitation of our maritime zones within the Aegean and the japanese Mediterranean. This distinction goes again many years. However I feel we’ve labored constructively over the previous years to diffuse tensions and to acknowledge that, even when we can’t resolve this main downside, which hasn’t been resolved for a lot of many years, we are able to nonetheless have a working relationship, a constructive relationship on sure fronts. I’ll be going to Ankara, making our very clear factors as regards to our predominant distinction, but in addition attempting to construct upon the progress that now we have revamped the previous 12 months.

RA: There was a tragedy in your shores this week, through which 15 migrants died within the Aegean Sea. Do you could have a transparent account of what truly occurred? Reportedly, the Coast Guard vessel collided with a ship, after which that boat capsized—

KM: Let me say that it’s my obligation—it’s a tragedy—we’d like a full investigation. My preliminary, and I stress this, data is that basically our Coast Guard ship was rammed by a a lot smaller boat. We don’t know why this occurred.

Folks discovered themselves within the sea; folks died; folks had been rescued. However I do anticipate a full investigation, and I’ll depart it as much as the competent authorities to find out precisely what occurred.

However that is the state of affairs that occurs fairly continuously within the Aegean. You’ve got smugglers placing folks with out life vests, let me level that out. You’ve got 40 folks crammed in a 30-foot boat with very sturdy engines; the only objective is to get to a Greek island. My Coast Guard, we’re not a welcoming committee. Our job is to guard our borders, however our job can also be to save lots of folks whose lives are threatened. And if it weren’t, I can inform you, however for the Coast Guard, we’d have extra folks die after this accident.

RA: However prime minister, if I could, a part of the job can also be transparency. And so I’ve to ask, will any video that emerges from the federal government facet be launched? I convey this up as a result of in 2023, there was a a lot larger tragedy the place lots of of migrants died. Movies later emerged of the Coast Guard trying to bump right into a trawler, not the opposite means round. So if there may be any official video, will that be launched?

KM: The incident you might be referring to was not below my watch. On the time, we had a provisional authorities in energy. There’s once more a full investigation. If there may be any video footage, I make a full dedication that this investigation will happen with full transparency.

RA: That’s good to listen to.

Zooming out from the tragedy of this week, I wish to ask you extra broadly concerning the idea of asylum and the place immigration is right this moment. In nation after nation, together with Greece and america, there’s a actual backlash towards immigration. Your personal insurance policies, that are more durable on unlawful immigration, appear to be fairly widespread, even while you face criticism from rights teams. How do you consider what’s the proper factor for a rustic to do?

KM: To begin with, let me level out that again in 2020, Greece was the primary nation to endure from a hybrid operation, the place migrants had been pushed in an organized method to succeed in our land borders and to enter into European territory. On the time we stated, “This isn’t going to occur.” We protected our borders. So my strategy may be very, quite simple. Powerful on unlawful migration—make it very tough for folks to return into the nation illegally—but in addition be beneficiant and provide authorized pathways to migration. And naturally, these individuals who do enter and who’re entitled asylum can keep in Greece. Now we have quite a few examples that we maintain these folks. We attempt to combine them.

However for those who enter Greece illegally and also you’re not entitled asylum, I’ll do no matter I can to ship you again, both to the nation of origin or to the nation of transit. So it’s very open.

After I got here into energy, unemployment was at 18 p.c. Now, it’s dipped below 8 p.c. Now we have labor shortages. We’d like expert and unskilled labor. We wish to welcome folks from overseas to work and stay in Greece, however we wish to do it on our personal phrases.

RA: Let me convey up one final area of the world on this dialogue, and that’s the Center East. President Trump just lately proposed a Board of Peace for the way forward for Gaza. You had been one among many European leaders to reject that invitation. Why is that?

KM: We didn’t be a part of the Board of Peace for authorized causes, voicing some issues which had been shared by different European companions. However my proposal to the U.S. and to my European companions was very simple: Let’s discover a means for these European nations which might be taken with Gaza to discover a option to decide in to the Board of Peace, however just for Gaza. As a result of what was introduced as a Board of Peace was not nearly Gaza; it was a brand new group. And that made us skeptical, as a result of the preliminary U.N. decision was nearly Gaza. So, if there’s a option to decide in to the construction, however just for Gaza, in a time-defined method and below the auspices of a U.N. Safety Council decision, I’d be comfortable to do this. And I feel many different European nations could be comfortable to do that as properly.

RA: Have you ever heard again from america having voiced these issues?

KM: No, not but, however I feel it’s a piece in progress.

RA: I’m going to return to the place we started this interview, and that’s the United States, particularly below President Trump in his second time period. Prime minister, you’re extremely diplomatic. You appear to have discovered a option to work with america on power and safety. It’s very clear to me as properly that you’re hedging your bets for the way forward for the continent. What’s the proper option to take care of the Trump administration proper now?

KM: To begin with, I put on two hats. I’m a nationwide chief, and once more, I cherish the connection with the U.S. I’m going to make it possible for it’s as constructive as attainable. However I’m additionally a European chief who will stand agency on the subject of ensuring we maintain the European line, when at instances, issues get dodgy in our relationship. Being trustworthy and clear, and ensuring that we set clear boundaries and limits by way of what will be accepted and what can’t be accepted, appears to me to be the very best path ahead. Once more, I’m one of many few European leaders who labored with President Trump throughout his first administration, and I had a really constructive relationship.

RA: But when I could, analysts like me have identified that Trump 1 may be very totally different from Trump 2.

KM: To a sure extent, that’s true, and I’ve not met him in particular person. We’ve not had a correct bilateral relationship. However once more, as Europe, we have to be very clear by way of what’s going to occur if issues had been to escalate uncontrolled. If tariffs had been to be imposed, for instance, as threats had been made—this might not be productive as a result of it might elicit a response. I feel the second we made that very clear, I feel it grew to become additionally apparent to the administration that there’s extra to lose than to win by way of pursuing this path of motion.

So once more, setting our boundaries, being very clear, being participating, however definitely being non-escalatory and never scary a combat with the U.S. That is the trail we’re taking. And on the subject of the bilateral relationship: ensuring that we discover win-win offers just like the power deal, which work for each nations, and for Europe as an entire. If now we have decided to maneuver away from Russian fuel, we have to exchange it with one thing. And I’m fairly comfortable to exchange it with American LNG.