FMCG gross sales worth for 2025 rise 5.7% to R683 billion
Conventional commerce channels rising at a quicker tempo than fashionable commerce
Winner-takes-all alternative for agile FMCG manufacturers in conventional commerce channels
NielsenIQ (NIQ) South Africa has launched its State of the Retail Nation evaluation* for the calendar yr of 2025, exhibiting wholesome development in retail gross sales worth and quantity. South African shoppers spent almost R683.3 billion on fast-moving shopper items (FMCG) by conventional and fashionable commerce channels throughout the yr underneath evaluate. This represents year-over-year worth development of 5.7%, with unit gross sales rising by 6.7%.
“Throughout 2025, South Africa’s FMCG sector confirmed resilience in navigating persistent headwinds equivalent to excessive unemployment and low financial development, whereas benefiting from tailwinds equivalent to a stronger rand and moderating inflation,” says Zak Haeri, Managing Director for NIQ in South Africa.
“We noticed real momentum in 2025 as actual wages improved and spending lifted throughout most classes. However the unstable geopolitical local weather, a backdrop of commerce tensions and spiking costs for commodities equivalent to cocoa and low may problem FMCG manufacturers and retailers within the months to come back.”
FMCG market: Snacks continues to be the star performer
Meals, the biggest class, was up 6.3% to just about R246.4 billion for the yr and noticed a 5.9% gross sales quantity improve. The fastest-growing segments for the total yr had been non-alcoholic drinks (up 7.5% to just about R96 billion) and snacking (up 7.9% to R50.2 billion). These classes additionally noticed spectacular gross sales quantity development, with non-alcoholic drinks up 7.1% and snacking up 13.5% – indicating unit gross sales development over and above inflation.
Most different key classes additionally delivered respectable development:
Sector
Worth
Gross sales worth development
Gross sales quantity development
Private care and well being
R78.4 billion
5.1%
3.3%
Liquor
R137.8 billion
4.2%
4.6%
Dwelling and pet
R34.9 billion
3.8%
1.6%
Child meals and care
R14.2 billion
0.9%
3.2%
Tobacco
R25.1 billion
5.6%
6.7%
Conventional commerce outperforms fashionable commerce
The majority of FMCG retail gross sales for the yr – R513.2 billion – went by fashionable commerce channels equivalent to grocery store chains, franchised grocery shops and ecommerce platforms. Conventional commerce channels (which embrace impartial superettes, spaza retailers and taverns) racked up round R170.1 billion in gross sales.
Nonetheless, gross sales development in conventional commerce is outpacing fashionable commerce. Haeri says: “Conventional commerce has bounced again following the disruption of the COVID-19 lockdown years. Comfort is one motive for conventional commerce’s outperformance throughout 2025. With greater than 140,000 conventional commerce shops versus round 11,000 fashionable commerce shops, conventional merchants provide unmatched accessibility, particularly for consumers in distant and rural areas.
“Conventional commerce can also be benefitting from a development of households going to the retailers extra usually, shopping for smaller packs and buying much less per journey to the retailers. With many conventional merchants leveraging their networks to purchase bulk from wholesalers and distributors, they’re extra value aggressive with fashionable commerce than they had been earlier than. On this context, consumers have much less incentive to journey to bigger shops to make huge purchases.”
Personal label share dwindles as conventional commerce expands
Subdued development within the fashionable commerce sector contributed to a slight decline in personal label share of complete retail gross sales. Excluding the tobacco and liquor classes, personal labels accounted for round 17.7% of FMCG gross sales worth in 2025, down from18.3% in 2024. Personal label gross sales worth grew 4.1% in 2025 to just about R106 billion, in comparison with gross sales development of 8.1% the yr earlier than.
This softening in personal label momentum additionally comes as impartial and branded gamers ramp up promotions, innovate extra aggressively and lengthen distribution, which all contributes to extra competitors on cabinets.
“The distinctive development in conventional commerce is a compelling alternative for agile FMCG manufacturers,” says Haeri. “However successful right here is a unique ball recreation to fashionable commerce. In fashionable commerce, dozens of SKUs can get a justifiable share of the worth. In conventional commerce, it’s a winner-takes-all dynamic. If you’re not one of many prime manufacturers on the shelf, it’s recreation over.”
2026 outlook: Turbulence forward?
Trying to the remainder of 2026, Haeri says that it will not be stunning to see shopper inflation rise once more resulting from provide chain pressures and power prices, notably if the conflict within the Center East is extended. FMCG retailers and producers ought to make sure that they’re structured to reply quickly if headwinds emerge or tailwinds strengthen.
“You can not predict exterior shocks, however you’ll be able to management how shortly you reply and the way resilient your provide chain is. Promotions and pack structure are necessary levers in a price-sensitive market like South Africa,” says Haeri. “Profitable is about managing each precise worth and perceived worth. Sturdy manufacturers have extra room to maneuver.”
* Knowledge is predicated on NIQ’s complete *Retail Measurement Service (RMS), which is the biggest retail (grocery) information supply within the nation and the one foreign money utilized by all of South Africa’s main retailers. This benchmark information includes greater than 11,000 branded shops (e.g., supermarkets and storage forecourts) and greater than 140,000 impartial shops (e.g., spazas and taverns) throughout South Africa’s 9 provinces and measures greater than 80% of all retail grocery transactions.
Supply: NielsenIQ (NIQ).
Photograph credit score: AI.
