Welcome again to Overseas Coverage’s Latin America Temporary, and Pleased New 12 months.
This week, we’re previewing a few of the largest tales of 2026: the way forward for U.S.-Mexico-Canada relations amid a commerce deal assessment and the World Cup, the race for the following United Nations secretary-general, and key elections throughout the area.
In current many years, the politics and economies of Canada, Mexico, and america have turn into so intertwined that leaders’ summits between the nations earned the nickname the Three Amigos.
U.S. President Donald Trump examined the bounds of that friendship final 12 months through tariffs, threats to desert a trilateral commerce deal, and harsh immigration restrictions that might undermine the success of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which will likely be held throughout the three nations.
This summer season, the nations will face a deadline for whether or not to scrap, hold, or tweak the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Settlement (USMCA) commerce deal that took impact in 2020—simply because the soccer event will get underway. The destiny of each will have an effect on the all-important North American relationship.
USMCA was negotiated throughout Trump’s first time period, changing the North American Free Commerce Settlement. It has a built-in assessment course of that is because of conclude by July 1. Mexico and Canada want to see the deal prolonged in one thing near its present type, whereas Trump’s commerce consultant, Jamieson Greer, lately mentioned that america had thought of exiting the deal and changing it with separate bilateral agreements.
In non-public, U.S. negotiators seem dedicated to the deal, senior Canadian officers have mentioned. However Trump’s unpredictability, particularly on commerce, implies that the destiny of the deal is an open query. U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico final 12 months already slowed progress in each nations; some consultants say the levies violated the USMCA.
The result of the USMCA assessment might present readability on the place U.S. tariff ranges will in the end settle. For Mexico and Canada, a pointy departure from present USMCA guidelines would pressure an initially painful reorganization of their international commerce relations. Some 75 p.c of Canada’s exports and 80 p.c of Mexico’s presently go to america.
The World Cup, for its half, might have an effect on public opinion of america in Mexico and the broader area. Internet hosting the event is a chance for any nation to spice up its smooth energy. However this 12 months’s version is already marred by worries about how the Trump administration’s anti-migrant stance might have an effect on some followers, particularly these from Latin America and the Caribbean.
America hosted a global event of soccer golf equipment final 12 months. Throughout that occasion, U.S. authorities detained an asylum-seeker dwelling in america who was on the way in which to a sport and later deported him. (He was initially detained for unauthorized use of a drone.) The White Home envoy for the World Cup mentioned final month that Trump wouldn’t rule out immigration raids at this 12 months’s event.
Such raids might have an effect on folks from Latin America and the Caribbean who’re presently in america, and a few of these dwelling outdoors the nation could be blocked from attending the event altogether due to Trump’s journey bans.
That’s the case for Haitian soccer followers, whilst Haiti has certified for the World Cup for the primary time in 50 years. Trump banned Haitians from getting into america in June. As of December, the White Home had issued an exemption for soccer gamers, however not followers.
By final June, public opinion of america in Brazil and Mexico had turned extra unfavourable underneath Trump, in line with a Pew survey. A World Cup characterised by deportations and blocked followers might speed up the development.
If Mexico offers an particularly constructive expertise for vacationers, that might hasten a distinct sample. The variety of guests to the nation was on observe to interrupt a document in 2025, in line with authorities information via October. Whereas U.S. tourism is rising dimmer, that of neighboring Mexico is shining brighter.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva gestures throughout the opening ceremony of the Brazil-Paraguay Integration Bridge in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, on Dec. 19, 2025.Evaristo Sa/AFP through Getty Pictures
Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Haiti, and Peru will all maintain presidential elections this 12 months, and the contests within the first two nations can have implications properly past their borders.
Due to time period limits, Colombia will bid farewell to leftist President Gustavo Petro, who sought—with combined success—to depart from the hard-line warfare on medicine, to extend Bogotá’s foreign-policy independence from Washington, and to spur a worldwide coalition of nations to maneuver away from dependence on oil and gasoline.
Petro’s approval score sits at round 40 p.c or decrease, which bodes poorly for his ally and potential successor, Iván Cepeda. With a extra conservative president, Colombia’s vitality and safety insurance policies might take a pointy flip, and it might be part of the area’s column of pro-Trump nations.
A loss for Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who’s searching for a fourth time period in workplace, might have an identical end result. A rightward shift in Brazil could be consequential for the area. It could lead on the nation to scale down its ambitions to form the agenda of world south nations, an indicator of Lula’s administration. It may additionally sluggish Brazil’s work on highway, rail, and port infrastructure tasks to higher bodily combine South American economies.
Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz, who took workplace in November, goals to open the nation’s lithium reserves to extra non-public funding. In the meantime, Brazil’s legislature is debating a draft crucial minerals coverage that may channel a few of the nation’s uncooked supplies into native processing vegetation.
China is pitching itself as a companion for Latin American governments to spice up their home industries associated to crucial minerals. The Trump administration has introduced up crucial minerals in its talks with a number of Latin American governments and pledged to cooperate on crucial minerals investments with Argentina. The European Union has additionally touted the matter as a possible space of cooperation.
Whether or not Latin American nations can use their crucial minerals as a springboard to industrial progress and regionally made applied sciences is a query that may outline the century, not simply this 12 months. However it’s clear that if Latin American nations don’t set their very own crucial minerals insurance policies, superpowers could also be fascinated by setting the foundations of engagement for them.
Samuel Moncada, Venezuela’s ambassador to the United Nations, speaks throughout a U.N. Safety Council assembly on U.S. navy actions in opposition to Venezuela, at U.N. headquarters in New York on Dec. 23, 2025. Angela Weiss/AFP through Getty Pictures
The United Nations will select its subsequent secretary-general this 12 months, and a casual customized stipulates that it’s Latin America and the Caribbean’s flip to area the chief. In current months, calls have additionally grown for the U.N. to call its first feminine secretary-general. Lula is amongst those that got here out in favor of electing a girl to the place final 12 months.
Chile’s outgoing administration nominated former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet for the place, although President-elect José Antonio Kast has not mentioned whether or not he’ll preserve the nomination. Costa Rica nominated former Vice President Rebeca Grynspan. Each have senior U.N. management expertise.
Mexican Pure Assets Secretary Alicia Bárcena and Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley are additionally being informally eyed as candidates.
The Trump administration, in the meantime, has thrown its weight behind a male candidate: Rafael Grossi, the Argentine head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog. Argentina’s authorities formally nominated Grossi, who has urged a renewed deal with the U.N.’s unique mandate to forestall warfare. The Trump administration has criticized U.N. efforts to deal with gender and local weather points on the worldwide stage.
Echoing some U.S. critiques, Bachelet and Grynspan have additionally referred to as for the U.N. to turn into extra environment friendly and return to its first ideas. However a profitable candidate will want backing from far past Washington.
The toll of organized crime in Latin America has turn into one of many area’s prime election points. It has additionally attracted main consideration and navy sources from the Trump administration.
That doesn’t imply that america is mechanically setting nations’ safety insurance policies, nonetheless. Final 12 months, Mexico pushed again in opposition to the White Home’s proposed strategy to drug trafficking, which included potential U.S. strikes on Mexican soil, the Washington Submit reported. As a substitute, Mexico took its personal steps to curb cartel motion, lowering homicides and persuading america to again down.
In 2026, different nations within the area will take their very own new steps on safety coverage. Chile’s Kast, who will likely be inaugurated in March, has pledged to step up the navy’s position in anti-crime patrols and lengthen incarcerations. Crime is predicted to be a number one challenge in elections in Colombia and Peru.
Some Latin American leaders could proceed to endorse purported U.S. anti-cartel actions within the area—most notably associated to Venezuela—to remain on the Trump administration’s good aspect. However there are dangers to this strategy. If the White Home escalates its stress marketing campaign in opposition to Venezuela, it could turn into tougher to defend to Latin American publics.
