On this pool {photograph} distributed by the Russian state company Sputnik, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin attends a flag-raising ceremony for the most recent Challenge 955A (Borey-A) strategic nuclear-powered submarine Knyaz Pozharsky in Severodvinsk on July 24, 2025.
Alexander Kazakov | Afp | Getty Photos
Europe has to confront the fact of the “hybrid warfare” being waged towards it, in line with European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen, telling EU lawmakers {that a} sequence of incidents was “not random harassment” however a part of a concerted marketing campaign to unsettle and weaken the bloc.
Current drone and airspace incursions, cyberattacks and election interference have been only a few incidents that von der Leyen cited as cases of hybrid warfare towards Europe.
“In simply the previous two weeks, MiG fighters have violated Estonia’s airspace, and drones have flown over vital websites in Belgium, Poland, Romania, Denmark and Germany. Flights have been grounded, jets scrambled, and countermeasures deployed to make sure the security of our residents,” von der Leyen mentioned Wednesday throughout a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.
“Make no mistake. That is a part of a worrying sample of rising threats. Throughout our Union, undersea cables have been reduce, airports and logistics hubs paralysed by cyberattacks, and elections focused by malign affect campaigns,” von der Leyen mentioned, including emphatically: “That is hybrid warfare, and we now have to take it very significantly.”
Whereas she didn’t blame all these incidents instantly on Moscow, von der Leyen mentioned it was evident that “Russia needs to sow division.”
Moscow has lengthy been accused of being behind a large number of “hybrid” assaults towards its European neighbors however has repeatedly denied these accusations. CNBC contacted the Kremlin for a response to von der Leyen’s newest remarks and is awaiting a response.
What’s hybrid warfare?
So what’s a hybrid conflict, or warfare? Put merely, it is a solution to wage a kind of warfare with out showing to be doing so.
There isn’t any set definition for hybrid warfare however protection, army and safety consultants agree that, basically, it blends standard army strategies with extra subversive or irregular techniques designed to disrupt, distract and undermine adversaries.
US marines look on from aboard the USS Mesa Verde ship in the course of the Northern Coasts 2023 train within the Baltic Sea, September 18, 2023.
Janis Laizans | Reuters
European international locations on the periphery of the EU, or these on the frontier with Russia, just like the Baltic states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, or these in Japanese Europe similar to Romania and Poland, have been more and more uncovered to hybrid warfare assaults.
These incidents have ranged from power and telecommunications infrastructure, similar to undersea cables, being sabotaged, to Russian jets or submarines venturing into NATO airspace or waters for brief intervals of time.
Russia has denied being behind many of those incidents, though it tends to not touch upon its jets getting into NATO airspace or drone incidents that led to Danish airports being closed and flights disrupted. A variety of European officers accused Russia of being behind the disruption however nationwide authorities typically say it is tough to search out strong proof of Russian involvement.
That is one of many hallmarks of hybrid warfare, the EU’s von der Leyen mentioned, with such incidents “calculated to linger within the twilight of deniability.”
An indication warns a couple of no-fly zone in Copenhagen, Denmark, on September 29, 2025. From Monday, September 29, via Friday, October 3, all civilian drone flights are prohibited in Danish airspace in reference to the EU summit.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Photos
Russia’s marketing campaign of hybrid actions in Europe has expanded considerably since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine started over three years in the past, in line with a report printed earlier this yr from geopolitical and safety intelligence service, Dragonfly.
It documented 219 incidents of suspected Russian hybrid warfare in Europe since 2014, together with sabotage, assassinations and electromagnetic assaults, similar to GPS jamming. Of those incidents, 86% have taken place since early 2022 and nearly half (46%) occurred in 2024 alone.
The Baltic states, Finland, Germany, Norway, Poland and the U.Ok. will in all probability stay the first targets, the report famous, as a consequence of their robust help for Ukraine.
Europe says it is able to act
European officers are underneath no phantasm that the time to behave to bolster regional safety and defenses towards malign actions is now.
NATO members earlier this yr pledged to extend protection spending to five% of gross home product and Europe has vowed to mobilize its protection sector to fulfill the “everlasting menace to European safety” that is posed by Russia, as Luxembourg Prime Minister Luc Frieden instructed CNBC final week.
Member states mentioned final week the creation of “flagship” protection tasks such because the Japanese Flank Watch initiative, which proposes the creation of a “drone wall” community that may shield towards airspace violations by unmanned aerial autos (UAVs). There may be some ambivalence over the drone wall, nevertheless, with Germany’s protection minister showing to pour chilly water on the concept.
Luxembourg’s Frieden mentioned the EU didn’t desire a battle with Russia, however wanted to guard itself.
“Hybrid assaults are clearly one thing that may occur wherever — the cables within the Baltic Sea, the assaults on our IT techniques, the drones that may fly over a few of our international locations, that exhibits that there’s a sure sort of provocation that we now have to take significantly,” Frieden mentioned, including: “I do not need us to be at conflict with Russia … however we have to take threats significantly” he instructed CNBC’s Silvia Amaro.
“We need to inform Russia, do not strive, cease it, return … [and that it has] no likelihood in conquering the Europe.”
