A girl and a child look out of a window of a prepare in Kyiv, Ukraine.
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4 years of conflict between Russia and Ukraine are starting to take their toll on the nations’ demographics because the battle places girls off — or prevents them — from beginning or increasing their households.
Whereas the results of that broad-based hesitancy to have youngsters won’t be instantly obvious, a decline within the beginning price can have far-reaching penalties for economies and societies additional down the observe.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine started on Feb. 24, 2022, Ukraine’s fertility price — the common variety of births per girl — has plummeted, exacerbated by the conflict, the lack of companions and spouses within the combating, and household separation and mass emigration.
In 2021, Ukraine’s whole fertility price stood at 1.22 however this has since dropped to 1.00 in 2025, in accordance with United Nations inhabitants knowledge. Some have cited a extra dire metric, with the First Woman of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska, warning in December that the fertility price within the nation had plunged to 0.8–0.9 youngsters per girl, with the conflict and insecurity throughout Ukraine inflicting this “crucial decline.”
For a society to exchange itself from one era to the subsequent, with out counting on migration, a complete fertility price of two.1 youngsters per girl is important.
Russia, too, has additionally seen a longer-term development downwards in its fertility price exacerbated by the conflict. In 2021, Russia’s fertility price was 1.51 however by 2025, it had dropped to 1.37 youngsters per girl, down from 1.4 recorded the 12 months earlier than.
Ongoing development
Ukraine and Russia aren’t alone in experiencing declining fertility and beginning charges — the development will be seen in a wide range of European and Asia nations — and the decreases will be right down to a number of elements, from profession and life-style selections to financial constraints.
A girl carries a child as she reacts after evacuating from Russian troop-occupied Kupiansk city in a bus convoy, amid Russia’s assault on Ukraine, on the outskirts of Kharkiv, Ukraine Could 30, 2022. Image taken Could 30, 2022.
Ivan Alvarado | Reuters
However 4 years of conflict seem to have performed an enormous half in deterring or stopping girls in Ukraine from having youngsters, whereas in Russia, girls appear immune to repeated calls from the Kremlin, and President Vladimir Putin, to have bigger households.
Declining beginning charges pose large issues for nations as they’ve knock-on results on the financial system and society, with few births that means fewer employees within the labor pressure in future, in addition to decrease productiveness and financial development.
Meaning decrease tax receipts for governments and additional pressure on pension and healthcare programs as an ageing inhabitants grows and turns into depending on a shrinking working inhabitants.
The fertility and beginning price — referring to the variety of dwell births per 1,000 individuals every year — had been declining earlier than the conflict, with Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 and help for pro-Russian separatists in japanese Ukraine affecting sentiment towards having youngsters in these areas, Iryna Ippolitova, senior researcher on the Kyiv-based Centre for Financial Technique, advised CNBC.
The scenario was then made even worse after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
“After all, in 2022 it acquired it even worse due to this large migration and since the vast majority of those that left Ukraine had been individuals of working age, economically energetic individuals,” she famous, including:
“Lots of girls who theoretically may have youngsters left, and for individuals who stayed, the conflict and uncertainty meant they had been unprepared to provide beginning in Ukraine, and the variety of births remains to be declining.”
Even when peace talks come to fruition and the conflict ends, Ippolitova stated migration out of Ukraine may proceed, whereas these staying within the nation may very well be delay having households in the event that they worry a repeat invasion by Russia. This, she stated, was one more reason why Ukraine wanted safety ensures as a part of any peace deal.
Maternity items and hospitals have been broken through the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This photograph exhibits particles inside a broken maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine after Russian shelling on February 1, 2026. Russia denies intentionally focusing on civilian infrastructure.
World Pictures Ukraine | World Pictures Ukraine | Getty Pictures
Though fertility tendencies are notoriously laborious to foretell, and child booms are sometimes seen after wars finish, Ippolitova stated the nation’s low fertility price may nonetheless hassle the Ukrainian financial system sooner or later.
Colleges and universities had been already beginning to expertise falling numbers of pupils, she stated, signaling a smaller working-age inhabitants down the road.
“I feel that it’s a enormous drawback. We’ve got labor shortages proper now, already, and after the conflict, it would solely worsen … In 10 or 15 years when individuals my age retire, there shall be no one to exchange them on the labor market,” Ippolitova stated.
Russia seems to be for a child growth
Regardless of being the injured, invaded occasion within the conflict, Ukraine just isn’t alone in experiencing declining numbers of births. Russia has seen the identical development over a number of a long time regardless of Putin selling bigger households as a “conventional Russian worth” and patriotic responsibility.
The Russian state has launched incentives for girls who’ve three or extra youngsters, together with lump-sum funds, tax breaks and state advantages. The Kremlin has even revived the Soviet-era “Mom Heroine” award, giving girls a money reward of 1 million rubles (round $13,000) for having 10 or extra youngsters.
Resistance to such incentives stays, nonetheless, with Russia recording 1.222 million births in 2024, the bottom annual whole since 1999.
In December, Putin stated throughout his year-end press convention that the fertility price stood at 1.4 in 2025 (the precise determine was 1.374) and recommended Russia wanted a child growth.
“We even have a slight decline [in the fertility rate] — roughly 1.4. We have to obtain at the very least 2.0,” Putin stated throughout his annual “Direct Line”, telling the general public that “we should make the happiness of motherhood and fatherhood modern.”
Journalists watch Russian President Vladimir Putin answering questions through the annual “Direct Line with Vladimir Putin broadcast dwell” by Russian TV channels and radio stations on the Gostiny Dvor studio, in Moscow on June 15, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV (Picture credit score ought to learn KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP by way of Getty Pictures)
Kirill Kudryavtsev | Afp | Getty Pictures
Critics say Putin’s place on the nation’s low fertility price boils down to regulate slightly than demographic considerations.
“I strongly consider that Putin’s regime’s efforts to double down on encouraging births just isn’t associated to any sort of demographic tendencies. That is all about societal management,” Konstantin Sonin, the John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor on the College of Chicago Harris College of Public Coverage, advised CNBC.
“[Russia’s authorities] need girls to be at dwelling, they need girls to be with youngsters. They need males to care in regards to the girls, not about politics,” Sonin, a distinguished Putin critic, stated.
CNBC has contacted the Kremlin for a response to the feedback and is awaiting a reply.
Sonin argued that Putin had already proven he didn’t care about demographics by beginning the conflict in opposition to Ukraine, with the battle inflicting financial instability, labor market shortages and inflation.
Efforts by the Kremlin to encourage extra births had fallen flat, Sonin stated, as a result of girls in Russia didn’t really feel secure and safe, with the low beginning price direct proof of that and successfully dispelling optimistic photographs of the nation and conflict promoted by Russia and state-run media.
“There are extra necessary issues for any girl, for any younger household, than simply how a lot cash in a direct money switch they are going to obtain from the state. What issues for them is the overall feeling of security. And this isn’t there in Russia,” Sonin stated.
“The standard of life has fallen for the reason that starting of the conflict. Lots of of hundreds of younger persons are lifeless due to the conflict, so individuals all of the sudden really feel a lot much less secure than they felt in different circumstances.”
