The Vitality and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) launched the utmost retail gasoline costs for the interval 15 Might to 14 June 2026 on Thursday night, and the numbers inform a narrative Kenyans have been bracing for since final month.
In Nairobi, tremendous petrol now prices KES 214.25 per litre, up KES 16.65 from the earlier cycle’s KES 197.60. Diesel climbs by KES 46.29 to KES 242.92, an all-time document. Kerosene holds at KES 152.78, however solely as a result of the federal government is absorbing what would in any other case be a brutal improve.
Diesel is now KES 28.67 dearer than petrol. That hole is unprecedented in Kenya’s pricing historical past. For the trucking, manufacturing, agriculture, and matatu sectors that run virtually solely on diesel, that is not a value adjustment. It’s a structural shock.
Why is diesel all of a sudden so costly?
The press launch tells the fast story. The common landed price of imported diesel rose by 20.32% between March and April 2026, leaping from US$1,073.82 to US$1,291.98 per cubic metre. Petrol rose 10% in the identical window. Kerosene was the fortunate one, up simply 1.59%.
Why diesel particularly? Three causes.
First, world diesel is structurally tighter than petrol. Refineries can shift output between merchandise, however diesel demand from delivery, trucking, agriculture, and trade tends to be inelastic. When provide shocks hit, diesel feels them first and worst.
Second, the Strait of Hormuz disaster is in its fourth month. Since the US and Israel struck Iran on 28 February 2026, the waterway that carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil and most of its diesel has been functionally closed. Brent crude is buying and selling above US$107 a barrel. Saudi Aramco’s chief govt warned this week that the market could not normalise till 2027 even when the strait reopens quickly.
Third, EPRA’s pricing window lags actuality. The Might to June costs mirror cargoes that landed at Mombasa between 9 April and 10 Might — the worst of the disaster. By the point these costs change once more on 15 June, we will likely be paying for gasoline that arrived in Might, which can be much more costly.
What in regards to the cushioning?
There are two interventions preserving costs from being worse.
The Worth Added Tax on petrol, diesel, and kerosene stays at 8%, down from the usual 16%. That is the speed signed into regulation by Authorized Discover No. 70 in April, legitimate till 14 July 2026. We already defined how Kenya zig-zagged from 16% to 13% to eight% VAT in 48 chaotic hours final month.
The federal government can be tapping the Petroleum Improvement Levy (PDL) Fund to the tune of roughly KES 5 billion this cycle, used particularly to stabilise diesel and kerosene. That’s down from KES 6.2 billion final cycle. The cushion is shrinking.
The kerosene story is essentially the most revealing. The product wouldn’t be at KES 152.78 if EPRA was not actively subsidising it. The worldwide worth of kerosene on the wholesale stage has greater than doubled within the final six months. The federal government is basically consuming the distinction to maintain cooking and lighting reasonably priced for low-income households. That subsidy will not be sustainable indefinitely.
Why we preserve ending up right here
That is the query that retains coming again, and the trustworthy reply is uncomfortable.
Kenya has no strategic petroleum reserve. None. The nation depends solely on the 21-day business shares held by particular person oil entrepreneurs. Japan holds 260 days of provide. South Korea holds 210. Even India, an importer dwarfed solely by China, holds 25 days. Kenya holds zero strategic days.
In April, Vitality Cupboard Secretary Opiyo Wandayi advised parliament that the federal government is “in discussions” to ascertain a reserve in Mombasa, presumably with personal buyers. This can be a dialogue that has been taking place, on and off, for the reason that Petroleum Act of 2019 first envisaged one. Seven years later, nonetheless nothing constructed. When the Iran warfare began, Kenya had no buffer. That could be a coverage alternative.
The Authorities-to-Authorities (G-to-G) import take care of Gulf suppliers was alleged to convey worth stability. As an alternative, it produced the MT Paloma scandal, the resignation of three senior officers together with the previous EPRA Director Normal, and an emergency cargo procured outdoors the framework that EPRA needed to exclude from its calculations. We coated the total G-to-G mess intimately in April. The structural issues flagged then haven’t been addressed.
What this implies for you
Matatu fares will rise. They virtually should. The Federation of Public Transport Operators floated a 15% to twenty% improve final cycle and the mathematics solely will get worse this month.
Meals costs will comply with inside weeks. Maize, greens, and bulk commodities transfer by diesel truck from upcountry to Nairobi. A KES 46 per litre improve on diesel ripples by each wholesale worth.
Electrical energy payments are additionally uncovered. Thermal crops operating on diesel and heavy gasoline oil contribute to the Gas Vitality Price Cost on each KPLC invoice. April’s electrical energy FECC was already a document 347 cents per kWh. Count on that line to climb additional.
For now, costs take impact at midnight on 15 Might 2026 and maintain till 14 June. The following overview lands on Sunday 14 June. Whether or not that brings reduction relies upon solely on the Strait of Hormuz, the worth of Brent, and the way a lot PDL cash the Nationwide Treasury continues to be prepared to burn.
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