The Power and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) has introduced the brand new most retail gasoline costs for the interval April 15 to Could 14, 2026. The numbers verify what the business had been warning about for weeks: this can be a painful cycle.
Tremendous petrol in Nairobi will now price KES 206.97 per litre, up KES 28.69 from the earlier KES 178.28. Diesel climbs KES 40.30 to KES 206.84. Kerosene stays unchanged at KES 152.78.
That diesel determine is the standout. It has practically caught up with petrol, a spot that used to sit down comfortably above KES 10. The 2 fuels are actually separated by simply 13 cents in Nairobi. For matatu operators, trucking corporations, and producers who run on diesel, this isn’t a delicate adjustment. It’s a structural hit.
Why the bounce is this huge
The reply begins on the Strait of Hormuz.
Since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, world oil markets have been in a state of disruption not seen because the Seventies. Iran moved to shut the Strait of Hormuz, by means of which roughly 20% of the world’s oil provide usually passes. On Sunday, the US army ordered a naval blockade of ships calling at Iranian ports, additional tightening provide. Oil costs have surged previous $100 a barrel.
Kenya imports all of its refined petroleum. EPRA calculates pump costs based mostly on the weighted common price of gasoline cargoes that arrive on the Port of Mombasa between the tenth of the earlier month and the ninth of the present one. This cycle’s costs replicate shipments that landed between March 9 and April 10, the primary batch to hold the complete price of the Center East disaster.
The numbers are stark. The typical landed price of imported tremendous petrol rose 41.53% in a single month, from US$582.11 to US$823.87 per cubic metre. Diesel jumped 68.72%. Kerosene doubled, up 105.15%.
What the federal government did to melt the blow
Two interventions stopped costs from climbing even larger.
First, Cupboard Secretary for the Nationwide Treasury John Mbadi Ng’ongo signed Authorized Discover No. 69 on April 14, lowering Worth Added Tax on tremendous petrol, diesel, and kerosene from 16% to 13%. It is a short-term measure, efficient from April 15 to July 14, 2026. It means the tax charged on every litre of gasoline is decrease, although the bottom worth has risen sharply.
Second, the federal government is deploying roughly KES 6.2 billion from the Petroleum Growth Levy (PDL) fund to subsidise the distinction between the place costs would naturally land and the place they’ve been capped. With out this intervention, pump costs would have been considerably larger. As we reported final week, gasoline sellers had warned that petrol may hit as excessive as KES 231.68 per litre with out authorities cushioning.
EPRA’s breakdown for Nairobi exhibits the stabilisation fund absorbing KES 4.68 per litre on petrol, KES 23.92 on diesel, and KES 108.10 on kerosene. That kerosene determine explains why its pump worth has not moved in any respect regardless of its landed price greater than doubling. The federal government is basically paying the distinction to guard households that depend on kerosene for cooking and lighting.
The scandal within the background
These costs additionally arrive in opposition to the backdrop of a gasoline importation scandal that has shaken Kenya’s vitality sector to its core. Three senior officers resigned in early April after investigations revealed that home gasoline inventory information might have been falsified to create a man-made scarcity. The scheme allegedly led to the irregular procurement of an emergency gasoline cargo aboard the vessel MT Paloma, exterior the Authorities-to-Authorities (G2G) framework, at inflated costs and with reportedly substandard high quality.
EPRA has said within the press launch that the tremendous petrol delivered through MT Paloma by One Petroleum has not been included within the computation of relevant costs, following an earlier authorities directive.
Former Petroleum Principal Secretary Mohamed Liban, former Kenya Pipeline Firm Managing Director Joe Sang, and former EPRA Director Normal Daniel Kiptoo Bargoria all stepped down after being named within the probe. Power Cupboard Secretary Opiyo Wandayi appeared earlier than Parliament’s Power Committee on Monday however denied information of why the officers resigned.
What this implies for on a regular basis prices
When diesel costs bounce 24% in a single evaluate cycle, every part that strikes by street will get costlier. Matatu fares are prone to rise. The price of transporting items from Mombasa to upcountry cities will go up. Meals costs, already underneath stress from seasonal components, will face extra upward thrust. Producers who depend upon diesel turbines for backup energy will see working prices climb.
Petrol’s 16% bounce, whereas smaller in relative phrases, nonetheless provides roughly KES 1,434 to the price of filling a 50-litre tank.
Mombasa, being closest to the port, will get the bottom costs within the nation: KES 203.69 for tremendous petrol and KES 203.56 for diesel. Cities farther from the coast pay extra as a result of transport prices.
What to look at subsequent
The VAT discount is short-term. It expires on July 14. If the Strait of Hormuz scenario has not stabilised by then, the Could and June pricing cycles may carry additional will increase as soon as that cushion is eliminated.
Treasury CS Mbadi has beforehand acknowledged that the KES 17 billion put aside for worth stabilisation wouldn’t be sufficient to soak up a sustained world shock. The KES 6.2 billion deployed this cycle is a big chunk of that. How a lot is left for subsequent months is an open query.
The broader coverage dialog has additionally shifted. Simply yesterday, Mbadi instructed lawmakers the federal government plans to exchange 2,500 petrol autos within the state fleet with 3,000 regionally assembled electrical autos, citing the necessity to scale back dependence on imported fossil fuels. Whether or not that plan survives the journey from committee room to procurement order stays to be seen.
For now, the message from EPRA is obvious: the period of KES 178 gasoline is over. The one query is how a lot worse it will get earlier than it will get higher.
New gasoline costs take impact at midnight on April 15, 2026, and can stay in pressure till Could 14, 2026.
Associated
